Tuesday, October 01, 2013

How 5 Muslim/Arab Countries Could Become 14 by the Western Powers


SPILLOVER TO IRAQ
In the simplest of several possibilities,
northern Kurds join Syrian Kurds. Many
central areas, dominated by Sunnis, join
Syria’s Sunnis. And the south becomes
Shiitestan. It’s not likely to be so clean.
In a more powerful twist, all or part of South Yemen could
then become part of Saudi Arabia. Nearly all Saudi commerce
is via sea, and direct access to the Arabian Sea would
diminish dependence on the Persian Gulf — and fears of
Iran’s ability to cut off the Strait of Hormuz.

YEMEN SPLITS
The poorest Arab country
could break (again) into two
pieces following a potential
referendum in South
Yemen on independence.
LIBYA UNGLUED
As a result of powerful
tribal and regional rivalries,
Libya could break into its two
historic parts — Tripolitania
and Cyrenaica — and
possibly a third Fezzan state
in the southwest.
PRE-MONARCHY
SAUDI ARABIA
Long term, Saudi
Arabia faces its
own (suppressed)
internal divisions that
could surface as power
shifts to the next
generation of princes.
The kingdom’s unity is
further threatened by
tribal differences, the
Sunni-Shiite divide and
economic challenges. It
could break into the five
regions that preceeded
the modern state.
Possible city-states
3. The Sunni heartlandsecedes and then may combine with provinces in Iraq to form Sunnistan.
2. A Syrian Kurdistancould break off and eventually merge with the Kurds of Iraq.
1. Alawites, a minority that has controlled Syria for decades, dominate a coastal corridor.
SYRIA: THE TRIGGER?
Sectarian and ethnic rivalries could break it into at least three pieces:
LIBYA
YEMEN
SAUDI ARABIA
Sana
Aden
Sabha
Mecca
Jeddah
Benghazi
MISURATA
Tripoli
Ad Dammam
Riyadh
BAGHDAD
Erbil
SHIITESTAN
TRIPOLITANIA
FEZZAN
CYRENAICA
WESTERN
ARABIA
SOUTH
YEMEN
NORTH
YEMEN
SOUTH ARABIA
EASTERN
ARABIA
WAHHABISTAN
NORTH ARABIA
ALAWITESTAN
SUNNISTAN
KURDISTAN
MEDITERRANEAN SEA
ARABIAN
SEA
PERSIAN
GULF
STRAIT OF HORMUZ
JABAL AL-DRUZE
EGYPT
IRAN
IRAQ
SYRIA

SPILLOVER TO IRAQ
In the simplest of several possibilities,
northern Kurds join Syrian Kurds. Many
central areas, dominated by Sunnis, join
Syria’s Sunnis. And the south becomes
Shiitestan. It’s not likely to be so clean.
In a more powerful twist, all or part of South Yemen could
then become part of Saudi Arabia. Nearly all Saudi commerce
is via sea, and direct access to the Arabian Sea would
diminish dependence on the Persian Gulf — and fears of
Iran’s ability to cut off the Strait of Hormuz.

YEMEN SPLITS
The poorest Arab country
could break (again) into two
pieces following a potential
referendum in South
Yemen on independence.
LIBYA UNGLUED
As a result of powerful
tribal and regional rivalries,
Libya could break into its two
historic parts — Tripolitania
and Cyrenaica — and
possibly a third Fezzan state
in the southwest.
PRE-MONARCHY
SAUDI ARABIA
Long term, Saudi
Arabia faces its
own (suppressed)
internal divisions that
could surface as power
shifts to the next
generation of princes.
The kingdom’s unity is
further threatened by
tribal differences, the
Sunni-Shiite divide and
economic challenges. It
could break into the five
regions that preceeded
the modern state.
Possible city-states
3. The Sunni heartlandsecedes and then may combine with provinces in Iraq to form Sunnistan.
2. A Syrian Kurdistancould break off and eventually merge with the Kurds of Iraq.
1. Alawites, a minority that has controlled Syria for decades, dominate a coastal corridor.
SYRIA: THE TRIGGER?
Sectarian and ethnic rivalries could break it into at least three pieces:
LIBYA
YEMEN
SAUDI ARABIA
Sana
Aden
Sabha
Mecca
Jeddah
Benghazi
MISURATA
Tripoli
Ad Dammam
Riyadh
BAGHDAD
Erbil
SHIITESTAN
TRIPOLITANIA
FEZZAN
CYRENAICA
WESTERN
ARABIA
SOUTH
YEMEN
NORTH
YEMEN
SOUTH ARABIA
EASTERN
ARABIA
WAHHABISTAN
NORTH ARABIA
ALAWITESTAN
SUNNISTAN
KURDISTAN
MEDITERRANEAN SEA
ARABIAN
SEA
PERSIAN
GULF
STRAIT OF HORMUZ
JABAL AL-DRUZE
EGYPT
IRAN
IRAQ
SYRIA

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