Written by Francis, comments in Malaysian Insider
February 01, 2009
State seats to be lost by Umno in case of a snap by-election.
1. Rungkup in Bagan Datok: UMNO won by 454 (2,330 in 2004)
2. Sungai Manikin P. Salak Umno won by 1,374 (3,599 in 2004)
3. Kampong Gajah, P. Salak Umno won by 1,415 (over 5,000 in 2004)
4. Chenderiang in Tapah. Won by MCA by 50% reduced margin. PKR fielded an Indian in a pure Chinese base. Will be corrected.
5. Ayer Kuning in Tapah (Umno won by 3,252. Close to 7000 in 2004). However, research shows the Umno candidate got 74% of the 48% non-Malay electorate. Now those non-Malays will vote for PAS which fielded a candidate here.
6. Tualang Sekah in Kampar. Umno won by 1,500 (3,500 in 2004). PKR fielded an Indian in the majority Malay seat. Though he did well, fielding a Malay here will beat the pulp out of Umno. Non-Malays are 43%
7. Sungai Rapat. Umno won by 636 against Pas. Hamida Osman, the DUN here is the one who called Indians snakes later after she won. Her majority in 2004 was over 6,000 but she survived by 600 in 2008. Pas will win outright here. Furthermore, PKR V.President is the MP here (Gopeng).
8. Belanja in Parit. Pas lost by over 1,800 (over 3,000 in 2004) due to non-Malay vote in 2008. With Umno taking a dig at the non-Malays and Pas accomdating them, and with Perak’s large non-Malay vote, Umno will lose every seat it won in March 08 due to the fear of Pas and the fact that PKR was unknown.
9. Bota is in Parit. The canidate defected to PKR and will retain his seat. Yesterday he said the pple who came to welcome him couldn’t be obtained even during his Ceramahas in March 08.
10. Pengkalan Baru. Umno won by 14 votes only. Yes 14 votes (over 2,200 in 2004). Pas swept the Malay vote but got less non-Malay vote. Today, Pas will retain malay vote and obtain non-Malay vote. That 14 votes for Umno will be 1,400 votes for Pas victory KT style.
11. Bukit Chandaran in Kuala Kangsar. Umno won by 1,600 votes (close to 6,000 in 2004). With Rafidah Aziz on her way out (she won by 1,000 unlike 5,600 in 2004), Umno will lose here.
12. Manong in K. Kangsar. Umno won by 749 (2,353 in 2004). Pas will sweep Malay vote and get non-Malay vote as well while PKR can obtain its one ADUN here.
13. Manjoi in Tampun. Umno won by 348 votes. Yet in 2004, it was close to 8,000 majority.
14. Lintang in Sungai Siput. Umno won by 1,376 (5,389 in 2004). PKR controls Parliament while DAP has the other DUN by a big margin.
15. Chenderoh in Padang Rengas of Nazri bloody racist Aziz. Umno won by 1,749 votes (4,771 in 2004). Note that Nazri survived by a whisker yet had a big win in 2004. Umno is losing further and further.The other DUN won captured by Pas ousting Umno.
16. Kamuting in Taiping. Umno won by 555 votes (4,571 in 2004). DAP has the Parliament seat here and Pas will cash on that apart from ISA is haram votes. Kamuting Prison is here.
17. Trong in Bukit Gantang (Pas captured the MP). Umno won by 916 votes (3,020 in 2004). It has a decent 30% non-Malay vote. PAS will win here.
18. Alor Bongus in Bagan Serai. (PKR Malay candidate outsted UMNO MP here). Umno won the DUN by 95 votes (3,416 in 2004). PKR to easily capture the DUN
19. Selama in Larut. Umno won by 355 votes (2,053 votes in 2004).
20. Kubu Gajah in Larut. Umno won by 66 votes (1,403 in 2004).
P.s I have left one million reasons why PR will sweep the state and many other considerations, but I just wanted to point out that PR will get close to 50 out 59 seats if we go for a snap election. Say Amin! Lets force the PR leadership to dissolve the state assembly. We are ready.
p.s (2) The 2 PKR ADUNS were blackmailed and detained ala Bala and they aren't leaving because of PKR or PR pressure. Both of them contested on PKR seats in 2004 and waited patiently to get elected in 2008 again. As you can see, they are principled but due to their naivety, they were framed by the nefarious forces of evil (you know them as that's their last resport always). Now they are being pressured to leave PR so that their corruption cases are dropped. while PR has more UMNO MPs who will cross over, like Pakeh who said he will and Hamdi who won with 14 votes only and Hamidah who won with 600 votes only (all 3 constituencies are controlled by PKR-Parliament wise), we prefer state elections and Husam has already said so. Yay....We want that to bury Najib and Umno